The effects of different travel modes and travel destinations on COVID-19 transmission in global cities

Journal: 《Science Bulletin》

Cite as: Rui Zhu, Luc Anselin, Michael Batty, Mei-Po Kwan, Min Chen, Wei Luo, Tao Cheng, Che Kang Lim, Paolo Santi, Cheng Cheng, Qiushi Gu, Man Sing Wong, Kai Zhang, Guonian Lü, Carlo Ratti,The effects of different travel modes and travel destinations on COVID-19 transmission in global cities,Science Bulletin,2021,,ISSN 2095-9273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.11.023.

Abstract: During the return of urban mobility and the reopen of urban facilities in many cities, new waves of the pandemic might be generated, as travel modes and travel destinations are associated with diverse infectious sources. To investigate the impacts of various travel behaviours on daily confirmed cases, this study developed a multivariate time series analysis based on the records in the Apple and Google mobility trends reports on COVID-19 transmission risks in 58 global cities from February to December 2020. It is found that travel destinations associated with various activities represent the largest contribution to daily confirmed cases, followed by infectious sources and travel modes, thus confirming the importance of strict quarantine measures to block the source of infection. Among the three travel modes, driving is the safest way to commute because drivers are physically separate from crowds, while walking has a much higher risk in some megacities. Although the public is more worried about using public transit, this mode can still be safe in some large cities. Among the six travel destinations, activities associated with stations make the largest contribution to the daily infections, followed by workplaces, residences, retail and recreation places, groceries and pharmacies, and parks. It is also revealed that the effects of population density in the built-up areas and the rate of facemask wearing varies in different periods. The results and conclusions presented herein are based on an analysis of spatio-temporal data and can help inform policy making and enable cities to be kept open while controlling the pandemic.